Seattle’s 2025 mayoral race is effectively a toss-up, according to a new poll from the Northwest Progressive Institute, with challenger Katie Wilson edging incumbent Bruce Harrell 36% to 33% in a simulated general election matchup.

The poll reflects growing vulnerability for Harrell, whose approval and favorability ratings remain in negative territory. Just 37% of likely voters approve of his job performance, while 45% disapprove. Harrell’s favorability is similarly underwater, with 42% viewing him unfavorably compared to 32% favorably.

Wilson, who gained political momentum after backing the winning social housing initiative Proposition 1A earlier this year, has built a credible campaign with strong grassroots fundraising and Democratic Party endorsements. Harrell retains broad institutional support, including recent backing from MLK Labor, and maintains a fundraising edge.

The poll, conducted online May 10–14 among 522 likely Seattle voters, shows generational divides: Wilson leads among voters under 50, while Harrell holds an advantage with older voters. Seattle’s electoral history suggests a tough road for incumbents—only one mayor has been reelected in the past 30 years.