The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the Republican tax and spending bill passed last month would add $2.4 trillion to federal deficits over the next decade.

The bill, narrowly approved by the House on May 22, combines $3.7 trillion in tax cuts with $1.3 trillion in spending reductions, producing the $2.4 trillion net cost between 2025 and 2034. The package includes cuts to Medicaid, food assistance, and parts of the Affordable Care Act, but those savings fall well short of offsetting the size of the tax reductions.

While supporters argue that lower taxes will spur economic growth and eventually pay for themselves, independent analyses—including prior estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation—have projected little additional growth from the cuts. The CBO analysis did not include macroeconomic effects.

The deficit increase would substantially raise federal borrowing. Once higher interest costs from the added debt are included, the CBO projects the total deficit impact could reach $3 trillion. By 2034, publicly held federal debt is projected to reach 123.8% of GDP, up from 117.1% under current law .

The bill now faces a more uncertain path in the Senate, where some Republicans have raised objections to its price tag. Recent warnings from credit rating agencies and financial analysts have also heightened concerns that continued debt growth could strain federal finances and push up borrowing costs across the economy.