The City of Seattle’s Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts has released its April 2025 revenue forecast, adopting a pessimistic economic scenario in light of mounting global uncertainty, weak local revenue collections, and sector-specific slowdowns. The shift reflects recent international trade disruptions, including steep tariffs, ongoing stock market volatility, and a heightened risk of recession—now estimated at 40–60% according to national surveys.
Seattle’s economic performance in 2024 was mixed. Employment grew by just 0.8%, below the national average, with job losses in construction, trade, and tech offsetting gains in healthcare and government. Sales tax revenue was flat year-over-year, weighed down by a 7.1% drop in taxable construction activity and soft consumer spending.
As a result, the City revised its General Fund revenue forecast downward by $10.2 million for 2025 and $40.2 million for 2026. The Payroll Expense Tax, which is highly reliant on a small number of large tech firms, is now forecasted to fall short by over $80 million annually compared to previous expectations.
Despite these challenges, the City has secured over $47 million in external grants to support housing, climate initiatives, public safety, and infrastructure improvements. While these investments provide needed support, the city’s dependence on trade, tourism, and tech leaves it exposed to continued economic headwinds in the near term.